U.S. retail commerce will fall to US$133 billion in 2009, registering a 0.4% decline, before improving along with the economy, eMarketer Senior Analyst Jeffrey Grau predicted Thursday.

However, by 2012, e-commerce will likely decline, as online buyers grow and close in on saturation point, he wrote. Using U.S. Department of Commerce figures, e-commerce sales increased 4.6% in 2008, with most increases recorded in Q1 and Q2, before nose-diving in Q3, eMarketer reported.