Wachovia cuts ad revenue forecast
By Leah McBride Mensching, Wednesday 30 January 2008 at 17:36 :: Advertising :: #1173 :: rss
Wachovia Equities Research anticipates U.S. newspaper advertising revenue will fall 8.2 percent in 2008, not 6.1 percent, as the firm had previously forecast.
The harder fall suggests a “newspaper ad recession,” Editor & Publisher reported Tuesday.
According to a Wachovia industry note released Tuesday, “the year has started below our expectations,” due to lower page counts. “We've seen this scenario before, and trends typically haven't improved. In fact, we think the deterioration of newspaper fundamentals is broadening and deepening.”
Print ad revenue is expected to take a 9.7 percent dive, not 7.6 percent as was previously estimated, according to Wachovia estimates for the year. John Janedis, senior Wachovia analyst, lowered ratings on Journal Register Co. and The New York Times Co. from “market perform” to underperform,” and McClatchy Co. from “outperform” to “market perform,” E&P reported.
Local advertising revenue is anticipated to fall not 3.5 percent, as was previously expected, but instead is now expected to fall 4.7 percent
Classified advertising for both print and online is expected to drop 17 percent, mostly due to poor showings in help wanted, forecast to drop 22 percent, and real estate, forecast to drop 23 percent. As help wanted and real estate advertisements slow, the note predicted online ad revenue will increase 13 percent, not 15 percent, as was previously forecast, according to E&P.







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