VSS: No newspaper growth until 2014

Posted by Erina Lin on August 19, 2010 at 4:09 PM

Declines in the newspaper industry are expected to slow down this year, and the market will eventually stabilise by 2013 and resume growth in 2014, according to the Veronis Suhler Stevenson Communications Industry Forecast 2004-2014, Editor & Publisher reported.

VSS predicted that retail, classified and national advertisers will continue to shift budgets to digital platforms "to target audiences and improve return on investment," as print circulations drop, which indicates consumers' migration to new electronic media, the report stated.

Total newspaper spending is expected to decrease by 9.5 percent this year, to $37.79 billion, due to declines in dailies of 10.6 percent (to $30.2 billion), in weeklies of 7.1 percent, and in digital platforms of 1.1 percent.

VSS stated that some local advertisers will be back to print media by 2014 to reach its loyal older demographic. However, there will still be a drop of 2.5 percent in the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) in the forecast period because of the industry's earlier shortfalls.

Dailies will mark a compound annual decline of 4.1 percent from 2009 to 2014, while weeklies' will be 0.7 percent. Digital platforms however, will help offset the decline with 9.2 percent CAGR, E&P reported.